气候变化对海南岛生态承载力的影响分析

利用植被净第一性生产力估算法测算海南岛自然植被净第一性生产力,并根据海南岛在CO_2倍增情景下气候变化的模拟结果,分析气候变化对海南岛生态承载力的影响。自然植被净第一性生产力与热量和水分条件呈正相关性,气温和降水增幅越大,自然植被净第一性生产力增加越多。而植被净生产力是反映区域生态承载力的间接指标,因此由分析结果知,在CO2倍增情景下,气候变化能显著提高海南岛生态承载力。

Analysis of Effects of Climate Changes on Ecological Carrying Capacity in Hainan Island

NPP in Hainan Island was assessed by using the assessment method of the net primary productivity of natural vegetation, and the effects of climate change on ecological carrying capacity in Hainan island were analyzed on the basis of the simulative results of climate change under doubled CO2 concentration. The more air temperature and precipitation increase due to the positive relativity of the net primary productivity of natural vegetation with the quantity of heat and the moisture condition, the more the net primary productivity of natural vegetation would increase. And the net primary productivity is the indirect index of ecological carrying capacity of the region. The result indicated that climate change could increase ecological carrying capacity in Hainan island under doubled CO2 concentration.