大麦顶端发育和物候期的模拟

为了能直观反映大麦生长发育进程，利用生理发育时问恒定的原理，建立了系统预测大麦顶端发育阶段和物候期的模拟模型。模型的检验结果表明，模型对大麦大多数发育阶段的绝对模拟误差都在0～6d，平均差平方和的根值（Root mean square error，RMSE）不超过4d。模型对出苗期、成熟期的模拟误差较小，RMSE分别为1．0和1．6d；对雌雄蕊分化期的模拟误差较大,RMSE为3．7d；对于比较重要的单棱期和药隔形成期，RMSE分别为1．8和3．2d，均没有超过4d。模型表现出较强的机理性和实用性。

Modeling Apical and Phenological Development Stages in Barley

The model of apical and phenological development stages for barley was constructed by the scale of physiological development time which based on the ecophysiological development process. The results showed that the absolute prediction errors for most stages of growth and development ranged within 0~6 d,and the root mean square errors (RMSE) were generally less than 4 d. The RMSE for emergence stage and maturity stage were 1.0 d and 1.6 d, which was smaller than that of other stages. The RMSE for stamen and pistil initiation stage were 3.7 d,which was bigger than that of other stages. And the RMSE for single ridge stage and anther separation stage,which were important to apical development for barley, were 1.8 d and 3.2 d.