美国白蛾在中国的危险性评估研究

摘要：对入侵害虫美国白蛾Hyphantria cunea(Drury)进行危险性评估，可以了解其适生区分布与发生风险概率，对其监测与防治有重大意义。利用GARP（Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction Modeling System）生态位模型预测美国白蛾在中国的适生区，并应用信息扩散模糊数学方法，对河北省部分地区美国白蛾进行危险性评估。结果表明：美国白蛾发生灾害风险评估值随着灾害指数的增大而减小，美国白蛾在中国的适生区分布范围：21.20°N～46.33°N，97.80°E～132.11°E和36.81°N～41.8°5N，76.00°E～94.66°E(新疆的部分地区)。基于GARP生态位模型及信息扩散理论，针对入侵物种已知分布数据对其进行危险性评估，对害虫的监测、防治、预警提供依据，具有广泛的应用前景。

Studies of risk assessment of Hyphantria cunea (Drury) in China

Abstract：To assess the risk of the invasive pest Hyphantria cunea(Drury), to know its potential distribution and the ratio of occurrence, make great sense for monitoring and controlling. Using GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction Modeling ), The article predicted suitable distribution area of Hyphantria cunea (Drury) in China, And the risk of Hyphantria cunea (Drury) in part area of Hebei province was assessed with fuzzy method based on information diffusion principle. the result showed that the values of risk decreased with the increasing of disaster index levels. the potential suitable distribution is from 21.20°N～46.33°N, 97.80°E～132.11°E and 36.81°N～41.85°N, 76.00°E～94.66°E (part areas of Xinjiang). Based on GARP and fuzzy method based on information diffusion principle, assessed the risk of the invasive pest using known distributing data, offering gist for monitoring, controlling and forecasting, have abroad application foreground.