甘肃河东地区小麦条锈病发展成因及预测预报技术 |
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引用本文: | 姚晓红,万信,许彦平,朱丹,李瞳,鲁爱军. 甘肃河东地区小麦条锈病发展成因及预测预报技术[J]. 中国农学通报, 2018, 34(5): 101-106. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17040046 |
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作者姓名: | 姚晓红 万信 许彦平 朱丹 李瞳 鲁爱军 |
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作者单位: | 甘肃省天水市气象局,西北区域气候中心,甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省榆中县气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,天水市植保站 |
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基金项目: | 行业(气象)科研专项“小麦条锈病发病的气象成因及气象指标研究”(GYHY201406036)。 |
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摘 要: | 利用甘肃河东麦区5地(市)8县(区)39个冬小麦条锈病病田率样本调查资料,采用统计学方法建立了小麦条锈病秋、春季发病面积预测预报气象等级模型,分析了甘肃河东麦区小麦条锈病发展成因并提供精准的预测预报技术,为农业及时采取防灾减灾措施,减免经济损失提供科学依据。该区小麦锈菌于夏季最热时段8d日滑动平均气温24~25℃以下地区越夏,或外地菌源随风漂移入侵感染以后,随秋季气温的下降和大气湿度的增加,适宜的温湿气候使小麦锈菌大量滋生蔓延,造成当地小麦条锈病迅速发展流行;入冬以后,锈菌在冬季最冷时段7d日滑动平均气温-9~-10℃以上地区越冬,并随春季气温的回升和降水量的增加而诱发小麦锈病大面积发展蔓延并迅速侵染下游区域。统计建立的预测预报气象等级模型经回代检验,秋季准确率89%,春季准确率91%,预测预报准确率较高。
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关 键 词: | 水产养殖 水产养殖 适宜性 评价系统 |
收稿时间: | 2017-04-10 |
修稿时间: | 2017-07-18 |
Wheat Stripe Rust in Hedong of Gansu: Development Cause and Forecasting Technology |
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Abstract: | Based on the survey data of 39 samples of winter wheat stripe disease field rate in 8 counties of 5 cities in Hedong of Gansu, the meteorological grade models of incidence area in autumn and spring of wheat stripe rust were established by statistical method. This paper analyzed the development causes of wheat stripe rust in Hedong of Gansu and provided accurate forecasting techniques, so as to provide scientific basis for timely disaster prevention and mitigation in agriculture production and reducing economic losses. The results showed that: the wheat rust over summer was at the 8-day moving average temperature below 24-25℃ in the hottest days of summer, or wheat rust infection drifted from other places with wind, and with the decrease of temperature in autumn and the increase of atmospheric humidity, the suitable temperature and humidity climate caused the wheat rust quickly multiplying and spreading, resulting in the rapid development of local wheat stripe rust; after entering the winter, the rust overwintering was at the 7- day moving average temperature above - 9- -10℃in the coldest days of winter, and the rising temperature and the increasing precipitation in spring caused large area spread of wheat rust and rapid infection to the downstream area. Statistical meteorological grade forecasting model was tested by the back substitution, the accuracy in autumn and spring was 89% and 91%, respectively, the forecasting accuracy was relatively high. |
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Keywords: | wheat Stripe rust Development Forecasting gansu |
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