2019年7月山东一次强对流天气成因及数值预报偏差分析

本文首先利用常规天气资料和卫星资料对2019年7月6日山东地区的强对流天气成因进行分析,此次强对流天气是在高空冷涡、低层切变和地面气旋的共同作用下,形成了大尺度抬升运动和不稳定层结,配合低空急流输送水汽和中尺度辐合造成的抬升运动,造成了大范围雷暴大风、暴雨和局部冰雹天气。同时,对流云团的合并发展增强了暴雨强度。最后,通过分析欧洲中心数值模式资料,得到对中尺度辐合中心的预报能力不足是造成暴雨落区预报偏差的主要原因。

Analysis of Causes and Numerical Forecast Deviations of a Severe Convection in July 2019 at Shandong Province

At first, this article uses conventional weather data and satellite data to analyze the causes of severe convection in the Shandong region in July 6, 2019. This severe convection was caused by the combination of high cold vortex, lower shear and surface cyclones. The scale uplift, unstable stratification, low-altitude torrent transporting water vapor and uplift caused by mesoscale convergence have caused a wide range of thunderstorms, heavy rains and local hail. At the same time, the combined development of convective clouds increased the intensity of the storm. Finally, by analyzing the data of the numerical model of the European Center, it is found that the insufficient forecasting ability of the mesoscale convergence center is the main reason for the deviation of the forecast of the heavy rainfall area.