改进灰关联的配电网降损潜力评估

通过主客观评估相结合的方法量化配电网各网损因子的节能降损空间。首先，对配电网线损类别进行归纳，并建立了配电网能效评估体系。然后，利用基于AHP的变权灰关联算法，分析了电网各网损因子与线损率指标之间的关联度。最后，优选强关联因子建立GM(1，N)预测模型，预测配网各影响因子趋于理想化时的线损率，分析各影响因子的降损潜力及综合潜力。算例表明，改进后的灰关联分析，模型预测精度高，所需样本少计算简便，适合于指导电网节能评估及规划。

Evaluation of Distribution Network Loss Reduction Potential Based on Improved Gray Relation

Proposed in this paper is quantifying distribution network loss reduction space of every influencing factors through subjective and objective evaluation.First,the relationships between line loss categories are generalized and a framework of distribution network energy efficiency evaluation is established.Then, AHP-gray relation algorithm analyzes the correlation degree between network loss factors and line loss rate.Finally,the study builds GM(1,N) model through strongly-correlated loss factors for predicting ideal line loss rate and calculating respective and comprehensive loss reduction potential. Case analyses show that improved gray relation method makes the accuracy of prediction higher and requires fewer samples and less computation,so that it provides a guidance for the energy-saving evaluation and planning of power network.