基于AHP-GRA综合方法的虚拟水战略适宜度评价

经济社会的高速发展是以资源特别是水资源的不可持续消耗为代价的，水资源短缺威胁到粮食安全、生态安全甚至国家安全、生命安全，有必要从问题发生范围之外、社会适应能力角度科学管理水资源。基于虚拟水、虚拟水战略理论发展及其实践经验，界定虚拟水战略适宜度概念，从区域水资源、经济、社会及生态四个维度对实施虚拟水战略的支撑影响因素进行系统分析。以黑河流域中游张掖市为例，从大系统角度构建了16个指标体系，并运用AHP-GRA方法对虚拟水战略适宜度进行定量评价。结论表明，水资源短缺只是实施虚拟水战略的基础条件，其实施受到土地、人口、经济发展、贸易等条件限制。在近期治理工程实施成果的基础上，张掖市虚拟水战略适宜度呈上升趋势，2010年虚拟水战略适宜度最高。虚拟水战略顺利实施需要从提高水资源利用率、优化产业结构、发展经济提高社会保障几方面以加强社会适应能力，以为张掖市谋求经济发展与水资源永续利用的愿景提供科学依据。

Evaluation of the Adaptability of Virtual Water Strategy Based on AHP-GRA Method

The economic success in China has come at the expense of over exploitation of natural resources and huge impacts on the environment and especially water resources. A solution of water shortage problem is related to the food security, ecological safety, even the national security and life security. It is essential to stand on the “Social adaptability ” to manage water resource scientific. Based on virtual water and the practical application of virtual water strategy, this paper introduces the concept of virtual water strategy and analysis the influence factors from four dimensions, including water resources sub-system, economy sub-system, society sub-system and ecology sub-system. We take Zhangye city which located in the middle reaches of the Heihe River for an example, then construct 16 indexes and integrate the AHP and GRA methods to evaluation weight quantitative. Based on the achievement of management project implementation in zhangye, The results show that the shortage of water resources is the basis of virtual water strategy implementation, it is also influenced by land, population, economic development, trade and other factors. virtual water strategy adaptability shows ascendant trend and achieve the highest degree in 2010, we can do something on efficiency of water resources, optimize industrial structure, economic development to improve social security aspects to strengthen the social adaptation ability, and provide scientific basis to pursue economic development and water resources sustainable utilization.