基于秋季降水量的春播关键期土壤墒情预测

为准确预测春播关键期土壤墒情，给政府部门指导春耕生产提供超前、科学、准确的决策气象信息，本文利用阜新1981-2003年的农业气候资料，深入研究阜新春播关键期土壤墒情和秋季降水的关系，得出：阜新地区春播关键期土壤墒情主要取决于前一年的秋季降水量，并建立了预测模型。此模型在2003-2006年的关键期土壤墒情预测中得到验证，并取得了明显的服务效果。

Forecast of Soil Moisture Content during Critical Period of Spring Sowing Based on Precipitation in Last Autumn

In order to forecast the tendency of soil moisture content during of the critical period of spring sowing accurately, to provide the advanced, scientific and accurate decision making information for the government department in instructing the spring sowing, the relationship between the soil moisture content during the critical period of spring sowing and the precipitation in the last autumn was studied, based on the meteorological data of 1981 -2003 in Fuxin City of Liaoning Province. The result showed that the soil moisture content during the critical period of spring sowing in Fuxin was mainly decided by the precipitation in the last autumn. A forecast model was established and validated by forecasting the soil moisture content during of the critical period of spring sowing in 2003 - 2006.