西洞庭湖区土地生产潜力与人口承载力研究——以湖南省安乡县为例

采用“生产力衰减法”（逆向限制因子修正法），估算了安乡县的土地资源生产潜力，同时对土地资源人口承载力进行了研究。结果表明，安乡县土地的开发空间和潜力较大，水稻、油菜、棉花三种主要农作物的生产潜力指数分别为66．82％、88．06％和89．06％，尚有2／3～4／5的土地生产潜力可开发。在温饱型、宽裕型、小康型和富裕型粮食消费水平下的土地资源人口承载力分别为88．54万人、77．48万人、68．87万人和61．98万人；土地资源能够保障全县人口小康水平的粮食消费量，但若要实现富裕型社会发展目标，则必须提高土地生产力水平、并控制人口增长速度。

A Study on the Potential Land Productivity and Population Carrying Capacity in the West Donting Lake Region

Based on the situation of food security and sustainable agricultural development,this research attempted to study systematically the issues of potential land productivity and population carrying capacity in Anxiang county by applying environmental elements step up method.The results showed that there was still 2/3 to 4/5 of the potential land productivity to be developed in Anxiang County.The potential productivity index of three chief crops,rice,rapeseeds and cotton,were 66.82%,88.06% and 89.06% resp.At the food consumption level of basic-living,fairly comfortable,well-off and better-off,the land could carry 885 400,774 800,688 700 and 619 800 people.At the current level of land productivity,it could satisfy the demand of people and reach the well-off standard according to the regional food security,therefore,to secure a better-off life,the land productivity must be improved and the growth rate of population should be controlled.