南宁市甘蔗气候产量预测模型

根据南宁市气候灾害空间分布及甘蔗的生理生态指标需求,借助HJ-1 CCD卫星遥感图像、基础气象数据和地理信息数据,构建南宁市甘蔗气候产量预测模型,对南宁市甘蔗总产量进行预估.结果表明,南宁市蔗区分布受干旱灾害影响范围较广,2010年处于重度干旱区域内的甘蔗种植面积为346.20 km2,占总蔗区的18.88％;受霜冻灾害影响面积较为局限,处于重度霜冻影响下的蔗区面积仅为67.1 km2,占总蔗区的3.75％.南宁市2010年甘蔗气候产量为884.46万t.验证数据表明该气候产量模型的预测精度可达90％以上.

Sugarcane climatic yield predicting model of Nanning

Based on the spatial distribution of meteorological hazards of Nanning and the eco -physiological characteristics of sugarcane, using HJ-1 CCD satellite data, basic meteorological data and geographic information data, established a sugarcane climatic yield predicting model of Nanning. The results showed that there was a wide field of region (346.20 km2, 18.88%) sugarcane distribute on the most droughty area, while only a few of them (67.1 km2, 3.75%) distribute on the most frost injury area in 2010. The sugarcane climatic yield in the year of 2010 was up to 8.8446 million ton. The forecast accuracy was proved to be satisfactory with a accuracy ratio more than 90%.