| 灰色系统模型在树木物候预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭玉生. 灰色系统模型在树木物候预报中的应用[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 1987, 9(1): 90-94 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭玉生 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中南林学院 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文应用灰色系统理论,利用1970—1975年的山桃、杏、紫丁香、紫藤、刺槐、枣等六个树种的开花物候期资料,分别建立六个树种的GM(1,1)物候预报模型,并对1970—1980年的始花期进行预测。结果表明,以上六个树种的预报平均误差仅为2.70、1.78,5.36,2.42,3.76天,精度高于线性回归法和平均值预估法,而且该法计算较为简便,为今后开展物候预报提供了一种新方法。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 树木 物候 预报 |
APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM TO PREDICTION PHENOLOGY OF WOODY PLANTS |
| |
| Guo Yusheng. APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM TO PREDICTION PHENOLOGY OF WOODY PLANTS[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 1987, 9(1): 90-94 |
| |
| Authors: | Guo Yusheng |
| |
| Affiliation: | Central South Forestry College |
| |
| Abstract: | applying the GM (1,1) of grey system, which was based on the data of observation during 1970-1975, set up forecasting modles of flowering time for Prunus davidiana, P. armeniaca, Syringa pseudoacacia, Zizyphus jujuba. Compared the means of average and linear regression, the GM(1, 1) models proposed a new method for the long-time prediction of phenology of woody plants, with a higher forecasting precision. |
| |
| Keywords: | Grey system Woody plants Phenology Prediction grey system. |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
