华北地区冬小麦生产潜力数值模拟及其自然正交分析

利用自然正交分解(EOF)对由机理性作物生长模型模拟的华北地区冬小麦的光温和气候生产潜力结果进行了分析,揭示生产潜力在时空上的分异规律。首先在中国科学院禹城综合试验站进行了冬小麦田间试验,测定了冬小麦生理生态及干物质积累过程等试验数据。根据试验数据对WOFOST模型进行了改进,获取了相关模型参数并对模型进行了充分验证,验证结果表明模型可以较好地模拟冬小麦生长过程。随后利用验证后的WOFOST模型模拟了华北地区42个站点1961—2006年冬小麦的光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,并对其进行EOF分析。结果表明华北地区光温生产潜力呈东北高西南低的变化趋势,气候生产潜力大致呈南高北低的趋势,该结果与以往研究结果较为一致。EOF分析则表明,影响光温生产潜力最重要的因子是辐射,其次是温度。影响气候生产潜力最重要的是降水,其次是该区域光温条件的综合效应。

Yield potential of winter wheat in the North China and its EOF analysis

Winter wheat experiments were conducted in the Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, which located in middle of North China. Measurements include wheat developmental stage and dry matter accumulation. Using the experimental data, crop growth model WOFOST was improved, calibrated and validated. Results showed that the model was suitab le for winter wheat simulation in the North China. The model was then used to simulate winter wheat growth and potential and rainfed yield in 42 weather stations from 1961 to 2006 in the North China. Simulated yields were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. Simulation results showed that potential yield of winter wheat was higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest plain, and the rainfed yield was higher in the south and lower in the north, which are consist with previous reports. EOF results showed that the most important affecting factor of potential yield was radiation; the second important one was temperature. As to rainfed yield, the most important factor was rainfall; the second one was the comprehensive effects of radiation and temperature. Combined with crop model simulation and EOF method, this research showed the impact degree of different climatic factors in different region, and could offer theoretical support and practical guide to the design of regional agricultural layout.