Sustainable management of urban tree stocks based on multi-criteria scenario modelling

Urban tree managers are challenged with sustainable ecosystem service provision in particular when urban tree populations become over mature. Therefore, managers have to quantify both future services and population stability. We exemplify an approach for estimating the tradeoff between cooling, CO₂-fixation and crown volume development, and the time until the changing tree population becomes stable. Using a realistic distribution of age classes and functional groups, we evaluate the balance between service provision and stabilization over decades to centuries. Their tradeoff mainly depends on the proportion of functional groups used in the replacement of mortal trees. Moreover, managers may steer tradeoff through an intentional planting postponement and acquisition of additional space.