基于SCS模型的登封市景观格局对地表径流的影响研究

探究登封市2003-2021年景观格局演变及其与枯、平、丰水月地表径流的关联性差异，分析景观格局指数影响力的空间异质性，为减缓地表径流、优化景观格局提供理论支持。基于Landsat系列遥感影像，提取登封市用地类型及景观格局指数，利用SCS水文模型、Pearson相关性分析及GWR等方法研究景观格局演变对径流量的影响。结果如下：（1）登封市林地对地表径流的消减率随着雨量增加而降低，丰水月比平水月降低了33.37%，是平水月减少量的2.47倍。（2）登封市在不同雨量下产生的地表径流具有显著的时空差异性，其中2015-2021年快速的城市建设活动导致丰水月有26.29km2的地区出现超出50mm的径流增加量。（3）景观指数与径流量的相关性随雨量递增而逐渐显著，SPLIT、IJI和LSI在丰水月与径流的正相关性比在平水月的平均降低10.8%、12.3%、8.3%，其中林地结合度对径流的阻滞效应在平水月最强。（4）CONTAG、IJI、LSI对径流的正、负向影响力在时间和空间双重维度上存在显著差异且整体呈正向驱动，其主导驱动力随时间变化由IJI向CONTAG转变。景观格局与径流量的耦合关联性在平水月最为显著且影响径流变化的主导驱动力在时空尺度上具有差异性，因此不同区域的防洪规划在优化整体景观格局的基础上应充分考虑优势斑块连通性对减缓径流的差异影响。

Research on the influence of Dengfeng landscape pattern on surface runoff based on SCS model

Explore the evolution of landscape pattern in Dengfeng City from 2003 to 2021 and its correlation with dry, normal, and wet moon surface runoff, analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the influence of landscape pattern index, and provide theories for slowing surface runoff and optimizing landscape pattern. support. Based on the Landsat series of remote sensing images, the land use types and landscape pattern indices of Dengfeng City were extracted, and the SCS hydrological model, Pearson correlation analysis and GWR methods were used to study the impact of landscape pattern evolution on runoff. Results are as follows：（1）The reduction rate of forest land to surface runoff in Dengfeng City decreased with the increase of rainfall, and the wet month was 33.37% lower than that of the normal month, which was 2.47 times that of the normal month reduction.（2）During the study period, the surface runoff generated by different rainfalls in Dengfeng City has significant spatial differences. The rapid urban construction activities from 2015 to 2021 resulted in an increase in runoff exceeding 50mm in the area with 26.29km2 of wet month.（3）The correlation between landscape index and runoff is gradually significant with the increase of rainfall. The positive correlation between SPLIT, IJI and LSI in wet months and runoff is 10.8%, 12.3% and 8.3% lower than the average in normal months. The blocking effect on runoff is strongest in normal month.（4）The positive and negative influences of CONTAG, IJI, and LSI on runoff were significantly different in time and space, and the overall driving force was positive. The dominant driving force changed from IJI to CONTAG with time. The coupling correlation between landscape pattern and runoff is the most significant in the average water month, and the dominant driving force affecting runoff change is different on the temporal and spatial scales. Therefore, the flood control planning in different regions should fully consider the dominant patches on the basis of optimizing the overall landscape pattern. Differential effects of connectivity on runoff mitigation.