RCP情景下基于AquaCrop模型的河南省夏玉米减产风险评估

本研究基于AquaCrop模型研究rcp4.5和rcp8.5两种代表性浓度路径情景下河南省不同区域未来气候变化下的夏玉米减产风险的变化特征，准确的评估未来气候变化对作物单产的影响，为最大限度的避免作物减产和制定适应性措施提供理论依据。结果表明，在rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下，较历史时期2000～2019年相比，河南省各地区最高温度、最低温度和降雨均呈现出显著波动上升趋势，在空间上气温和降雨增加速率呈现出相反的变化特征。基于AquaCrop模型分别模拟rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下不同区域夏玉米产量损失率，分别为18.3%～42.9%、22.9%～44.8%。产量损失率呈现出明显的空间差异性，其中，豫北-安阳和新乡产量损失率最高，豫南-驻马店产量损失率最低。在rcp4.5和rcp8.5情景下，河南省各区域减产风险指数整体上均呈现出增加的趋势，平均减产风险指数分别为0.353(rcp4.5)和0.368(rcp8.5)，减产风险高值区主要位于河南西北部和中部地区，减产风险低值区主要在河南省南部地区。

Yield Reductiioon Risk Assessment of Summar Maize Base on AquaCrop Model under RCP Scenarios in Henan Province

Accurately assess the impact of future climate change on crop yields,and provide a theoretical basis for avoiding crop yield reductions to the greatest extent and formulating adaptive measures.Based on the AquaCrop model,we investigated the variation characteristics of summer maize yield reduction risk under future climate change in different regions of Henan province under two representative concentration path scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5).The results showed that,under the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios,compared with the historical period from 2000-2019,the maximum temperature,minimum temperature and rainfall in all regions of Henan province have shown a significant fluctuating upward trend,and the temperature and rainfall increase rate in space show opposite regional changes characteristics.Based on the AquaCrop model,the yield loss rates of summer maize in different regions were simulated under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios,ranging from 18.3% to 42.9% and 22.9% to 44.8%,respectively.The yield loss rate showed significant spatial variability,with the highest yield loss rate in northern Henan and the lowest yield loss rate in southern Henan.Under the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios,all regions in Henan province showed an overall increasing trend in yield reduction index.The average yield reduction index of rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 were 0.353 and 0.368,respectively.The high value region of yield reduction index was mainly located in the northwestern and central parts of Henan province,and the low value area of risk was mainly in the southern part of Henan provinc.