基于PLUS和InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量演化分析与预测

为探讨安徽省土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,揭示碳储量时空演化特征和未来变化趋势,通过耦合InVEST模型碳储存模块和PLUS模型,分析1990—2018年安徽省土地利用类型和碳储量时空演化特征,并从自然发展和生态保护情景预测2034年、2050年安徽省碳储量变化趋势。结果表明：安徽省1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年的碳储量分别为1 218.37×10⁶,1 215.65×10⁶,1 211.39×10⁶,1 206.18×10⁶ t,呈现逐年减少趋势,主要由于耕地、林地被侵占。此外,省内土地利用类型空间差异显著,碳储量整体表现为“皖南较高、皖北皖中较低”的空间分布特征。不同情景预测表明,自然发展情景下,安徽省2034年和2050年的碳储量分别为1 197.93×10⁶,1 196.08×10⁶ t;生态保护情景下,其碳储量分别为1 202.89×10⁶,1 200.37×10⁶ t。与自然发展情景相比...

Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Anhui Province Based on PLUS and InVEST Model

To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Anhui Province, and reveal the spatial-temporal evolution and future trend of carbon storage, this study coupled carbon storage module of InVEST model and PLUS model to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use types and carbon storage in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2018, and to predict the change trend of carbon storage in Anhui Province in 2034 and 2050 from natural development and ecological protection scenarios. The results showed that the carbon storage of Anhui Province in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 was 1 218.37×10⁶, 1 215.65×10⁶, 1 211.39×10⁶ and 1 206.18×10⁶ t, respectively. The carbon storage decreased year by year, which was caused by the occupation of cultivated land and forest land. In addition, the land use types in Anhui province varied spatially, and the overall carbon storage was much higher in the southern part than that in northern and central part. According to the results of scenario simulation, carbon storage in Auhui province under the natural development scenario would be 1 197.93×10⁶ and 1 196.08×10⁶ t in 2034 and 2050, respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be 1 202.89×10⁶ and 1 200.37×10⁶ t in the same period. Compared with the natural development scenario, the expansion of construction land under the ecological protection scenario would be limited, and the high carbon density land types such as forests and grasslands would be protected, and the carbon storage capacity would be improved. These results could lay foundation for further clarifying the spatial and temporal pattern of carbon storage in Anhui Province and provide scientific references for further implementation of sustainable development strategy, acceleration of ecological province construction and "dual carbon" strategic planning in Anhui Province in the future.