基于相对热效应的大棚蟠桃发育期预测模型研究

为了研究温度对蟠桃发育期的影响，以相对热效应为预测指标，建立了蟠桃发育期预测模型，并采用独立的试验资料对模型进行检验。结果表明，温室蟠桃花芽膨大期到开花期、开花期到展叶期、展叶期到硬核期、硬核期到成熟期4个阶段所需的相对热效应分别为14.11、10.54、18.37、12.52，其相对热效应模型法回归估计标准误（RMSE）分别为1.13、2.04、4.36、5.51 d，且预测精度明显高于有效积温模型法（RMSE分别为3.36、5.37、11.79、15.28 d）。

Research on Prediction Model of Development Period of Flat Peach in Greenhouse Based on Thermal Effect

The temperature is an important meteorological factor that affecting the development of flat peaches in the greenhouse. Through experiments in different years, this paper quantitatively studied the influence of temperature on the development period of flat peach, and established a prediction model for the development period of flat peach based on the relative thermal effect. And use independent experimental data to test the model. The experimental results showed that the relative thermal effects required for flat peaches in greenhouses were 14.11, 10.54, 18.37, and 12.52, respectively, from flower bud expansion to maturity. The standard errors RMSE of the regression estimates were 1.13d (flower buds swelled to bloom), 2.04d (flowered to open leaves), 4.36d (opened leaves to hard core), and 5.51d (hard core to mature). The prediction accuracy is significantly higher than the traditional effective accumulated temperature model method (RMSE is 3.36d, 5.37d, 11.79d, 15.28d). The relative thermal effect model established in this paper can more accurately predict the time and maturity of each developmental stage of flat peach in the greenhouse, and can provide theoretical support for the temperature control of flat peach production in the greenhouse.