基于马尔可夫链的鸡西市土地利用结构预测

鸡西市是黑龙江省的第一大煤炭城市,对鸡西市土地利用结构进行分析和预测有助于在煤炭资源衰减的情况下为相关部门在调整全市的社会经济发展的策略、优化土地利用、保持土地的可持续利用发展等方面起到重要的参考作用。本文在对鸡西市土地利用现状分析的基础上,利用马尔可夫链对鸡西市未来土地利用结构进行预测。分析结果表明:从1996年到2005年鸡西市土地利用处于平稳发展期,预测到2020年也将处于平稳发展期,但从长远看将有大量耕地和林地退化为其他土地利用类型。

Forecast of Land-use Structure in Jixi City Based on the Markov Chain

Jixi city is the biggest city of coal industry in Heilongjiang Province.Under the condition of coal resources decreasing,it is useful to analyze and forecast land-use structure in Jixi city for the management department when they adjust the strategy of social and economic development,optimize land-use,and keep land sustainable development.Based on land-use situation in Jixi city,the land-use structure in the future is forecasted by using Markov chain.The results show that the land-use is in a period of steady development from 1996 to 2005,and it will not change until 2020,but from a long-term point of view,a lot of cultivated land and forest land will degenerate to other land types.