| 基于气象分析的二滩电站月径流预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐良芳,马光文.基于气象分析的二滩电站月径流预报[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(14):80-85. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐良芳 马光文 |
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| 作者单位： | 1．四川大学水利水电学院，成都 610065； 2．西华大学能源与环境学院，成都 610039;1．四川大学水利水电学院，成都 610065 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（50679098）；国家科技支撑计划（2008BAB29B09）；美国能源基金会“中国可持续能源“（G-0610-08581） |
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| 摘 要： | 采用相关概率法对月径流与前期气象因子进行相关分析，建立月径流的前期气象因子集，应用BP网络建立基于气象分析的二滩电站月径流预报模型。电站枯水期和丰水期月径流的拟合和预报结果均显示了较高的预报精度，预测值较好地反映实测值发展趋势，这表明基于气象物理成因的月径流预报是可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象，BP网络，径流，月径流预报，二滩电站 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/2/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/8/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Monthly runoff forecast of Ertan hydropower station based on meteorological analysis |
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| Xu Liangfang and Ma Guangwen.Monthly runoff forecast of Ertan hydropower station based on meteorological analysis[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2011,27(14):80-85. |
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| Authors: | Xu Liangfang and Ma Guangwen |
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| Abstract: | The method of anomaly correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relation between monthly runoff and prophase meteorological factors, and the meteorological factors set of monthly runoff prophase was established. The BP network based on the meteorological factors was used to set up the model of monthly runoff on Ertan hydropower station. The monthly runoff forecast in low water season and flood season indicated that the model had high forecasting precision, and the results showed that the forecast was in good agreement with measured value. The forecast model of monthly runoff based on physical meteorological factors was feasible. |
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| Keywords: | meteorology BP network runoff monthly runoff forecast Ertan hydropower station |
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