Vegetation and weather explain variation in crown damage within a large mixed-severity wildfire

The 2002 Biscuit Fire burned through more than 200,000 ha of mixed-conifer/evergreen hardwood forests in southwestern Oregon and northwestern California. The size of the fire and the diversity of conditions through which it burned provided an opportunity to analyze relationships between crown damage and vegetation type, recent fire history, geology, topography, and regional weather conditions on the day of burning. We measured pre- and post-fire vegetation cover and crown damage on 761 digital aerial photo-plots (6.25 ha) within the unmanaged portion of the burn and used random forest and regression tree models to relate patterns of damage to a suite of 20 predictor variables. Ninety-eight percent of plots experienced some level of crown damage, but only 10% experienced complete crown damage. The median level of total crown damage was 74%; median damage to conifer crowns was 52%. The most important predictors of total crown damage were the percentage of pre-fire shrub-stratum vegetation cover and average daily temperature. The most important predictors of conifer damage were average daily temperature and “burn period,” an index of fire weather and fire suppression effort. The median level of damage was 32% within large conifer cover and 62% within small conifer cover. Open tree canopies with high levels of shrub-stratum cover were associated with the highest levels of tree crown damage, while closed canopy forests with high levels of large conifer cover were associated with the lowest levels of tree crown damage. Patterns of damage were similar within the area that burned previously in the 1987 Silver Fire and edaphically similar areas without a recent history of fire. Low-productivity sites on ultramafic soils had 92% median crown damage compared to 59% on non-ultramafic sites; the proportion of conifer cover damaged was also higher on ultramafic sites. We conclude that weather and vegetation conditions — not topography — were the primary determinants of Biscuit Fire crown damage.