Measuring the impacts of climate change on the spatial structure of grasslands in urban landscapes of North America |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of Debrecen, Department of Civil Engineering, 2–4 Ótemető út, Debrecen 4028, Hungary;2. Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Great Plain Research Department, 3 Rakóczi út, Kecskemét 6000, Hungary;3. Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Geographical Institute, 45 Budaörsi út, Budapest 1112, Hungary;4. University of Szeged, Department of Economic and Social Geography, 2 Egyetem utca, Szeged 6722, Hungary;1. Department of Landscape, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China;2. School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China;1. Centre for Environmental Research and Impact Studies, University of Bucharest, 1 Nicolae Balcescu Blvd., 010041 Bucharest, Romania;2. Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering, Babes-Bolyai University, 30 Fantanele St., 400535 Cluj-Napoca, Romania;3. Chair for Strategic Landscape Planning and Management, School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 6 Emil-Ramann St., 85354 Freising, Germany;1. Department of Geography and Planning, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, USA;2. North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA;1. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 401 Park Dr, Boston, MA 02215, United States;2. Population Health Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, United States;3. Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, United States;4. Department of Data Science, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, 450 Brookline Ave, Boston, MA 02215, United States;5. Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, United States;6. Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Justice, Rutgers School of Public Health, 683 Hoes Lane West, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States |
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| Abstract: | Although the importance of biodiversity conservation has been acknowledged in urban landscapes of many forest, desert, and coastal biomes, urbanization in grasslands and its negative/positive impacts on biodiversity is understudied. We designed a pilot, spatio-temporal study to envision the impacts of land-use and vegetation change on the composition and configuration of grasslands in urban landscapes of the Upper Missouri River Basin under four climate-change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) from 2020 to 2070 with respect to the IPCC’s high-level and mid-level Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 w/m2 and RCP 4.5 w/m2). We show that under the most climate-change scenarios, the rate of grassland conversion into other land cover classes from 2020 to 2070 was greater in urban landscapes than the whole region but this trend was not correlated with urban expansion. Conversely, habitat proximity was negatively correlated with urban expansion. The capacity of habitat patches to function as wildlife refugia in urban landscapes was substantially greater under the B2 scenario, where social equality and environmental conservation are highly prioritized. On the basis of the results of this study, we demonstrate that measuring the changes in the composition and configuration of habitat patches, combined with an understanding of the rate of grassland conversion can provide more detailed information about opportunities and limitations for biodiversity conservation in this region and beyond. If managed strategically, urban landscapes can play a positive role in conserving biodiversity and preserving ecosystems in regions predominantly used for agricultural lands. |
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| Keywords: | Urbanization Grassland Climate change Biodiversity Conservation |
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