1961—2010天水市光、温、水资源变化特征及其与粮食产量的关系

为了探索气象资源变化与粮食产量的关系，运用天水市7个国家基本（一般）气象站1961—2010年日照时数、温度、降水资料，借助于气候变化率、Mann-kendall、Z-score标准化等方法，对该地近50年农业气候资源变化规律进行分析，并建立了综合资源指数模式。结果表明：1961—2010年，该地日照时数以30 h/10 a气候变率下降；年平均气温以为0.40℃/10 a气候变率上升，年平均最高气温以0.36℃/10 a气候变率上升，年平均最低气温以0.39℃/10 a气候变率上升；降水量以20 mm/10 a的气候变率下降。综合资源指数呈二次曲线变化，变化的转折点在1982年；1961—1982年以0.08/10 a气候变率下降，1982—2010年以0.48/10 a气候变率上升。与当地的实际粮食产量变化基本吻合。

A Study on Variation Characteristic of Light, Temperature and Precipitation Resource and their Relationship with Grain Yield in Tianshui City from 1961 to 2010

In order to explore the relationship between the climatic resource and yield of grain, based on date of sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation in seven weather stations in Tianshui from 1961 to 2010, the author analyzed the variation law of agrometerological resource with the methods of rate of climate change, Mann-kendall and Z-score standardization. The results showed that: the annual sunshine duration decreased by 30 hours every 10 years. The annual mean temperature, average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature increased by 0.40℃, 0.36℃ and 0.39℃ every 10 years respectively. It also indicated that the annual precipitation decreased by 20 mm every 10 years. The comprehensive natural resource index varied with curve of the second degree and the turn point was at 1982. It decreased by 0.08 every 10 years from 1961 to 1982 and increased by 0.48 every 10 years. This variation met with the yield of grain at research area.