气候变化对粮食单产影响的实证分析——以陕西省为例

为了定量评估气候变化对农业生产的影响，依据陕西省粮食生产投入产出数据和气象数据，运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数，实证分析了气温降水等气候因子对陕西省粮食单产的影响。结果表明，气温上升对粮食单产有负面影响，其产出弹性为-0.676，降水以及日照则为正面影响，其对粮食产出弹性分别为0.181和0.407，灌溉、农用机械投入等都对粮食单产增加有正向作用。最后，根据分析结果，提出了陕西省粮食生产应对气候变化的适应措施。

Empirical Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province

In order to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production, the author made an empirical analysis on the impact of climate change on the grain yield of Shaanxi Province by establishing the C-D-C model. The results showed that: the higher temperature had negative effect on the grain yield, while the rainfall and sunlight had positive effect on the grain yield of Shaanxi Province. The output elasticity of temperature, precipitation and sunlight were -0.676, 0.181 and 0.407. The contribution of irrigation and machine to the grain yield were significantly positive under the climate change. Finally, according to the research findings, the author proposed countermeasures of grain production to adaptation to climate change in Shaanxi Province.