基于CA-MARKOV模型的土地利用变化预测研究——以新疆昌吉市为例

为了避免在土地利用过程中出现的种种负面问题，因此对未来土地利用变化做出科学合理的预测，可以为解决即将到来的问题提供充裕的解决时间。利用昌吉市1998年、2011年2期4景TM遥感影像，对其进行解译，在此基础上应用结合MARKOV模型时间预测上的优势CA模型空间预测上的长处，运用CA-MARKOV模型进行土地利用变化进行分析，并根据分析结果对昌吉市2015年土地利用进行预测研究。结果表明，昌吉市在未来土地利用中建设用地增上迅速，建设占用耕地现象将持续下去，但土地开发的持续进行将会使耕地在总量上保持缓慢增长，林地、草地等其他各类用地变化较小。通过对昌吉市土地利用变化的分析，针对建设用地飞速增上，尤其是建设用地占用耕地现象，相关政府部门及时制定解决的方针和政策，在保障粮食生产安全的基础上，合理优化布局，发挥土地的经济社会生态效益，实现绿洲土地利用的可持续性发展。

Land Use Change Prediction Based on CA-MARKOV Model: Taking the Example of Changji City in Xinjiang

In order to avoid all sorts of negative problems in the process of land use, the land use change in the future to make scientific and reasonable forecast that can provide the plenty of time to solve the upcoming problems. The author used TM remote sensing images of the city of changji of 4 scenes of 2 years in 1998 and 2011, interpreted the remote sensing images, on the basis of the application of combining the advantage of the MARKOV model to predict time and the CA model on the strengths to predict space, used CA-MARKOV model to analyze the change of land use and according to the analysis results were used to predict the land use of the city of Changji in 2015. The results showed that: in the future the construction land of the city of changji would increase rapidly and the phenomenon of the construction land occupied the cultivated land phenomenon would continue, but continuous land development would keep a slow growth on total farmland and forest land, grassland and other various types of land use change was smaller. Through the analysis of land use change in the city of Changji, the government departments should formulate principles and policies in time to solve the construction land increasing rapidly, especially the phenomenon of the construction land occupied the cultivated land. On the basis of ensuring the safety of grain production, the government departments should optimize the layout, use the benefits of economic, social and ecological of land and realize the sustainable development of oasis land use.