野放麋鹿种群灭绝风险与生存力分析

利用野放麋鹿Elaphurus davidianus种群检测数据建立了随机指数增长模型与生死过程模型,并对种群的未来状态、灭绝风险及种群生存力进行了分析。随机指数增长模型模拟表明，随机因素对种群动态有很大影响。随着方差的增大，灭绝概率逐渐增加。且在方差一定的情况下，继续放养小数量的麋鹿对种群灭绝概率影响不大。基于生死过程建立的随机模型计算出野放麋鹿种群在出生率为16.13%、死亡率为7.13%的情况下的种群数量翻倍时间为10年。同时就不同的出生率与死亡率分别模拟计算了95%把握下的种群数量倍增时间。

Extinction risk and population viability analysis of wild Pere David's deer

The stochastic exponential growth model and birth-death process model were established to analyze the extinction risk and population viability with detected data of wild Pere David's deer populations.The first model showed that the stochastic factors performed a significant impact on population dynamics.The probability of extinction gradually increased as the increasing of variance.It had little effect on the probability of extinction to keep stocking a small number of deer under the condition of stable var...