A simulation model of a breeding ewe flock

A simulation model was constructed of a self-replacing flock of Merino ewes grazing a predominantly Wimmera ryegrass and subterranean clover pasture in the Eppalock catchment of northern Victoria, Australia. The model was used to predict the likely physical, biological and economic consequences of changes in stocking rate and date of lambing.Routines for simulating the local climate, together with expected levels of pasture production, were based on available local data. The herbage produced was utilised for animal maintenance, growth, pregnancy, lactation and wool production. Predictions were made of the ovulation and fertilisation rates of the breeding ewes and the subsequent survival of embryos and lambs. Lamb growth rates were determined relative to their predicted intake levels of milk and herbage.The economic consequences of different combinations of ewe stocking rate and date of lambing were evaluated by simulating the cash flow of the property. Financial returns were obtained from the sale of wool, cast-for-age and culled ewes, and wether lambs.