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西北牧区干旱指标分析及旱情实时监测模型研究
引用本文:佟长福,郭克贞,佘国英,畅利毛,戴佳信,段恒荣,郭瑞萍. 西北牧区干旱指标分析及旱情实时监测模型研究[J]. 节水灌溉, 2007, 0(3): 6-9
作者姓名:佟长福  郭克贞  佘国英  畅利毛  戴佳信  段恒荣  郭瑞萍
作者单位:水利部牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010010;内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010018;甘肃省天祝藏族自治县水利局,甘肃,天祝,733200
基金项目:国家农业科技成果转化基金
摘    要:对常用的4种干旱指标,即降水量指标、供需水关系(土壤含水量)指标、Palmer干旱指标和综合指标进行了分析,在指出各评估指标不足的基础上,建立了农牧业干旱评估指标的量化模型,即农牧业干旱评估指标的静态模型和动态模型,该模型能定量计算而且能较准确的反映出干旱给农牧业造成的损失.利用实时气象资料,根据近期降水、土壤底墒(前期降水)和气温3种因素计算干旱指数,对旱情进行实时监测,以便减轻干旱灾害的影响和避免各种工程与非工程防灾减灾措施实施过程中的盲目性,为牧区制定合理的抗旱方案提供参考.

关 键 词:西北牧区  干旱指标  旱情  实时监测
文章编号:1007-4929(2007)03-0006-04
修稿时间:2006-08-18

Analysis of Drought Indices and Study on Real-time Monitoring Model for Drought in Pasturing Area of Northwest China
TONG Chang-fu,GUO Ke-zhen,SHE Guo-ying,CHANG Li-mao,DAI Jia-xin,DUAN Heng-rong,GUO Rui-ping. Analysis of Drought Indices and Study on Real-time Monitoring Model for Drought in Pasturing Area of Northwest China[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2007, 0(3): 6-9
Authors:TONG Chang-fu  GUO Ke-zhen  SHE Guo-ying  CHANG Li-mao  DAI Jia-xin  DUAN Heng-rong  GUO Rui-ping
Affiliation:1. Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area, Ministry of Water Resources, Huhhot 010010, China; 2. College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Huhhot 010018, China; 3. Bureau of Water Conservancy of Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous County, Tianzhu 733200,Gansu Province, China
Abstract:Four kinds of drought indices,namely rainfall index,soil-water index,Palmer draught index and comprehensive index,were discussed in this paper.Based on the analysis of the shortcoming of above evaluation indices,the quantitative models of drought evaluation index for agriculture-stockbreeding,namely static model and dynamic model,were set up.The models not only can describe the drought quantitatively,but also can reflect the agriculture-stockbreeding losses caused by drought.According to three factors,such as rainfall in recent time,soil moisture and air temperature,the authors used real-time weather information to calculate drought index and monitor drought in real-time to abate the effect of drought disaster and avoid blindness of performing engineering measure or no-engineering to prevent and reduce disaster.The research result gave good reference for the decision of reasonable anti-drought scheme.
Keywords:pasturing area in Northwest China  drought index  drought  real-time monitoring
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