基于分布式水文模型的嘉陵江流域氮磷非点源污染负荷预测

为研究在大尺度流域上以降雨径流为载体的非点源污染,以基于土地利用的分布式水文模型(SLURP Hydrological model)为基础,提出氮磷负荷预测模型及未来气象参数和土地利用分布图的构建方法.就嘉陵江流域土地利用、畜禽养殖和农业人口未来变化产生的总氮与总磷的月负荷量进行模拟和预测分析.结果表明,预测年降雨径流...

Prediction of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution load in Jialing River watershed based on distributed hydrological model

To study non-point source pollution carried by rainfall runoff in the large-scale basins, based on semi-distributed land use runoff processes (SLURP) model, the construction method for prediction models of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) load, and the future meteorological parameters and land-use map were proposed respectively. By application of the proposed approaches, the monthly TP and TN loads of land use, livestock and agricultural population on the Jialing River watershed in the future were simulated and analyzed. The results showed that the increased volume of rainfall runoff, livestock and poultry in predicting year led to increased pollution load. Compared with the base year, the monthly maximum increases of nitrogen and phosphorus load were both in June, which were 28.6% and 22.5% respectively. The total land-use output load changed little together with changes of land-use types due to measures such as returning farmland to forests, but it was still the largest contribution.