| DYNAMIC PREDICION OF FOREST FUEL LOADS BY GREY VERHULST MODEL |
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| 作者姓名： | 何中秋 柴瑞海 桑韦国 李春英 张成钢 |
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| 作者单位： | He Zhongqiu (Forest Management Institute of Heilongjiang Province，Harbin 150040' P. R. of China)Chai Ruihai; Sang Weiguo; Li Chunying (Northeast Forest University)Zhang Chenggang (Forest Management Institute in Heilongjiang Province |
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| 摘 要： | INTRODUCTION'Inforn1ahonondvnan1icsofthefoel1oadslslmPOrtantt0bothl1lanagersandresearchersofecologicaleffectsoffire.Theal11ountoffuelconsullledbyfireandthesubsequentpat-ten1ofre-acculnulationoffilel1sln1POrtantf(I)illdeterl11inah0nofthefilelquanhtyftlelpresentatanyh1ne,asweIlasthesteady-stateweightofaccumtIlatedresidues;(2)inpredichngenenyrelease,il1tensityandspreadrateforfirebehaviorforecastandsuppression;(3)illassessingtheeffechvenessofpre-scribedburni11gforftlellnanageme11t,(4)indete…
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DYNAMIC PREDICION OF FOREST FUEL LOADS BY GREY VERHULST MODEL |
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| He Zhongqiu.DYNAMIC PREDICION OF FOREST FUEL LOADS BY GREY VERHULST MODEL[J].Journal of Forestry Research,1996(2). |
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| Authors: | He Zhongqiu |
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| Abstract: | The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing'anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs' grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively' by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated. |
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| Keywords: | Fuel loads Forest type Grey verhulst model Dynamic prediction |
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