Financial analysis of a clinical trial comparing simple estrus detection with estrus detection after prostaglandin-based appointment breeding in a commercial dairy herd in California, USA

An economic analysis of the outcomes from a clinical trial on dairy cow reproduction was performed. The trial compared two prospective cohorts from a California dairy herd of 670 cows: (1) a cohort of 56 cows initially treated with prostaglandin-F2 and appointment inseminated at 72 and 96 h post-treatment, followed in 7 days by estrus detection based breeding (PT); (2) a cohort of 53 cows that was managed strictly for estrus detection based breeding (HD). There were no significant differences between the cohorts for days in milk at conception, services per conception, or time to events. The economic analysis consisted of three parts: (1) a partial budget analysis of the two breeding strategies; (2) a deterministic decision analysis of the two practices; (3) a stochastic evaluation of the strategies. Both the deterministic and stochastic analyses used time value of money calculattions PT insemination cost the farm approximately $32 compared with an HD cost of approximately $17. However, the costs of getting the average animal pregnant were approximately respectively. Expected monetary values were $588 and $707 for PT and HD strategies, respectively. The stochastic decision analysis evaluated risks and return over 1000 simulations. It suggested that in 73% of cases an HD strategy will produce expected monetary values $170 more than the PT strategy, in 10% of cases the two will be within 4% in yield, and in 17% the PT strategy will yield $95 more than an HD program. Sensitivity analysis suggested that conception rates to estrus detection based breedings are not likely to alter the decision. However, conception rates to the appointment breeding program in conjunction with the elapsed time postpartum when the decision to breed is implemented and estrus detection rates can cause the PT strategy to be optimal. Situations where this might occur are discussed.