吉林省西部耕地动态变化及驱动力研究

为了更好地利用与保护吉林省西部耕地资源，找出影响耕地变化的主导因素，以吉林省西部各县（市）2001—2009年耕地数据为研究基础，分析了吉林西部耕地面积变化和各县市耕地利用动态幅度、相对变化率以及耕地面积增减特征，通过采用主成分分析法，研究了吉林西部2001—2009年耕地变化的驱动力。结果表明：2001—2009年吉林西部耕地面积总体增长幅度为0.37%，其中，镇赉县耕地利用动态幅度、相对变化率较大，分别为0.74%、2.03%；社会经济发展、人口和农牧业发展是影响耕地数量变化的3大驱动力。通过研究发现：吉林西部耕地资源9年间呈现递增趋势，人地矛盾并不突出，耕地变化区域差异明显。

Dynamic Changes of Cultivated Land in Western Jilin Province and Their Driving Forces

In order to be better use and protection of cultivated land resources and find out the dominant factors of cultivated land changes in the west of Jilin Province, based on the cultivated land of county (city) from 2001 to 2009, land use dynamic range and relative change rate and increase and decrease characteristics of cultivated land area was analyzed. The driving forces of cultivated land variation were studied through the method of the principle component analysis. The results showed that: from 2001 to 2009, the growth of cultivated land population was 0.37%, the dynamic range and relative rate change of the cultivated were greater, the dynamic range of cultivated was 0.74%, the relative rate of cultivated was 2.03% in Zhenlai County. The three important driving forces included social and economic development, population growth, development of agriculture and livestock farming. It was found that the quantities of cultivated land were increased over the past nine years, contradiction between people and land was not outstanding, and regional difference between regions was obvious.