基于因子分析的中国林业发展潜力

立足于我国林业资源可持续发展，为制定正确的林业资源发展战略，研究林业发展潜力并揭示潜力提升空间是十分必要的。选择27个省作为研究对象，运用《中国林业统计年鉴2008》数据，采用因子分析法，将反映林业发展潜力的10项主要评价指标转化为评价的5个主要因子，并对27个省进行排名发现，各地区林业资源占有和经营、林业资源质量和管理，以及自然、培育和人文转型潜力发展不平衡，南方各省的林业具有很大的发展潜力。并提出了提高南方集体林区森林活立木蓄积量，继续和深化国有森林资源管理改革和创新，大力发展森林旅游业等有力措施。

Factor-based Analysis on Forestry Development Potentiality in China

Based on sustainable development of forest resources, it is very essential to evaluate regional forestry development potentiality, carry out the rational strategy of promoting the development of forest resources, and increase the forestry development potentiality. In this study, 27 provinces in China were selected to research the change of national forest resources based on the effects of forest resources data from local governments. The data of “China Forestry Statistical Yearbook in 2008” and the factor analysis were used to transform the 10 main indices of reflecting the forestry development potentiality into 5 main analysis factors, and the 27 provinces in 2008 were ranked. The results revealed that the forestry development was quite different from different regions at the aspects of occupancy, management, quality, natural regeneration, cultivation and human transformation of forest resources. The potentiality of forestry development in the provinces in south China was much higher than that in north China. Some suitable measures were put forward so as to increase the stumpage volume of collective forests in south China, continue and deepen the reform and innovation of management of the state owned forest resources, and develop vigorously the forest tourism in China.