Uncertainty about estimating total returns of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar to the Gander River, Newfoundland, Canada, evaluated using a fish counting fence

Abstract  For a number of rivers in Newfoundland, Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., is managed in relation to river-specific conservation spawning requirements. One such river is the Gander River, where between 1989 and 1999, the escapement of Atlantic salmon, a major factor in assessing the status of stock, was determined using a fish counting fence. In 2000, the counting fence was discontinued and alternative means of calculating total returns were explored. Regression and simulation methods, using relationships between total returns and salmon counts at an upstream tributary during 1989–99, formed the basis for estimates of returns for 2000, and the uncertainty around estimates. The accuracy of methods is evaluated by retrospective comparisons with actual total returns between 1989 and 1999. Estimates of total returns deviated from the actual by as much as 50–60%, depending on the method. Management implications of the approach are discussed.