基于主成分分析法的河北省水资源承载力评价

为了实现水资源的合理规划与利用,以河北省为研究对象,选取人口、GDP、水资源总量、各产业用水量、万元GDP用水量等指标构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对河北省水资源承载力状况进行比较分析和综合评价,结果表明:2000-2015年降水量变化在390.0~606.4mm之间,多年地表水资源量变化范围在39.07~117.76亿m3,地下水水资源量在94.25~164.84亿m3之间,水资源总量以2012年最高,达到235.53亿m3,2006年最低,为107.43亿m3。对水资源承载力影响起主导作用的分为3大主成分因素,累计贡献率达88.064%,其中第1主成分反映了经济、人口和科技的发展状况,贡献率为59.866%;第2主成分反映了水资源的自然禀赋条件,贡献率为19.033%;第3主成分反映了服务业用水量的变化情况,贡献率为9.165%。2008年以后承载力评价结果均为正值,河北省水资源承载力状况整体呈现上升趋势。

Study on carrying capacity of water resources in Hebei based on principal component analysis

For realizing the rational planning and utilization of water resources,taking Hebei province as the study area,indices such as the total population,GDP,total amount of water resources,water consumption of every industries,and water consumption of ten thousand RMB GDP were selected for the construction of the water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system,and the principal component analysis was adopted for comparative analysis and comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Hebei province.The results showed that,the precipitation variation in 2000-2015 ranged between 390.0 and 606.4 mm.The variation of surface water resources was in the range of 39.07× 108～117.76 × 108m3.The amount of groundwater resources was between 94.25 × 108 ～164.84 × 108m3.The total amount of water resources in 2012 was the highest as 235.53× 108m3,and the lowest in 2006 as 107.43 × 108m3.There were three main factors that influenced the carrying capacity of water resources,the cumulative contribution rate of which was up to 88.064％.The first principal component reflected economic development,population increase,scientific and technological progress,the contribution rate of which was 59.866％.The second principal component reflected the natural conditions of water resources,with the contribution rate of 19.033％.The third principal component reflected changes in water use in services,the contribution rate of which was 9.165％.The evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity were positive after 2008,and the overall performance of water resources carrying capacity in Hebei is on a rising tendency.