黑龙江省原料奶边际需求分析

黑龙江省是我国重要奶源地之一,原料奶供求协调对奶业健康发展很重要。基于黑龙江省原料奶需求动态方程的分析结果,利用Power和Exponential模型预测2012~2015年滞后一期原料奶需求量、乳企资产、滞后一期乳企资产三个变量,均呈上升趋势;对1997~2015年的乳企资产、滞后一期乳企资产的边际需求进行测算及预测,结果表明在研究期间内二者的边际需求均呈先上升后下降的趋势,表明该省乳企资产要素投入处于生产合理阶段。

Marginal Demand Analysis of the Raw Milk in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang province is one of the important raw milk base in china,and the balance between supply and demand for raw milk have the significant effect to the development of dairy industry. Based on analyzed results of the dynamic equation on raw milk demand in Heilongjiang province,the Power model and Exponential model were used to predict the lag demand for raw milk,dairy products enterprises assets,lag issue of the dairy products enterprises assets from 2012 to 2015,and the three variables had the increased trend. The marginal demand of the dairy products enterprises assets and lag issue of the dairy products enterprises were calculated and predicted from 1997 to 2015. The results showed that the marginal demand had the first increase and then decrease trend during the study period,which indicated that the dairy enterprises＇ invested assets were in reasonable production stage.