基于GALES的海南橡胶林台风风灾评估模型初探

橡胶风害是海南橡胶的主要气象灾害之一。针对国内关于橡胶树风灾的机理性研究相对较少的情况,在参考树木风害机理模型GALES的基础上,根据橡胶树受力情况,从空气动力学和结构力学角度出发,建立了海南橡胶林风灾评估模型,该模型主要包括橡胶树断、倒模型,能定量确定橡胶树断、倒的临界风速条件。通过检验,该模型具有一定的可行性,模型结果可为开展海南岛橡胶风害防御提供决策依据。由于建立的模型参数多采用经验值,模型仍需不断改进和完善。

GALES-based Typhoon Disaster Assessment Modelling for Rubber Plantations in Hainan, China

Typhoon damages to rubber trees is one of the main meteorological disasters to rubber plantation in Hainan. The researches on the mechanism of wind damages to rubber trees in China were less documented. A typhoon disaster assessment model for rubber plantations was established according to the wind stress performance of rubber trees and based on GALES from the aspects of aerodynamics and structural mechanics. This disaster assessment model mainly included stem snapping model and uprooting model for rubber trees. The assessment model could measure the critical wind velocity for stem snapping and uprooting of rubber trees. Model testing showed that the assessment model was feasible, and the model will provide decision-making for prevention of rubber plantations from wind damage. The model still needs to be improved since the model parameters were mostly of empirical value.