Simulation of the impact of climate change on the egg and larval transport of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) off Kyushu Island,the western coast of Japan

In order to investigate the impact of climate change on egg and larval transport of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) off Kyushu Island western Japan, we conducted particle‐tracking simulations on transport success/failure to fishing grounds from 1960 to 2007. The modeled transport success since the mid‐1990s increased and decreased in the offshore and coastal zones, respectively, compared with the 1960s and 1970s. The estimated northward shift of the spawning ground and weakened Tsushima Warm Current contributed to increase in modeled transport success to the offshore zone. Conversely, the weakening trend of the modeled onshore current in the Goto‐Nada Sea combined with the northward shift of the spawning ground resulted in unsuccessful larval transport. These results suggest that fluctuations in juvenile and subadult anchovy catches in this area may be attributable to changes in the physical environment. The present study showed that changes in transport success induced by oceanographic fluctuations related to climate change, have the potential to affect anchovy recruitment off the western coast of Japan.