新疆水-能源-粮食系统安全综合评价

针对水-能源-粮食(WEF)系统纽带关系复杂,系统安全性的定量评价存在不足的问题,在分析WEF系统协同竞争机制的基础上,构建了系统安全评价指标体系和评价方法,以新疆各市域为例进行定量评价。结果表明:1997—2016年,新疆WEF系统安全等级整体呈上升趋势;各市域WEF系统安全变化趋势呈现为2个阶段:1997—2009年,除克拉玛依市和乌鲁木齐市外,其余市域系统安全等级均呈增加趋势,安全等级空间差异明显;2010—2016年,一半市域系统安全等级呈下降趋势,安全等级空间差异减小。随着政策导向的变化和技术的不断进步,能碳强度始终是影响新疆WEF系统安全的重要因素,其他主要影响因素由农业用水和用能方面转变为可再生能源自给率和水资源安全,进而导致前后两阶段WEF系统安全空间格局差异明显。各市域子系统投影值排名反映出各市域驱动机制的差异,应结合各市域主要影响因素和区域特点,因地制宜采取有效措施,以提高各市域WEF系统的安全。

Comprehensive Evaluation of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Safety in Xinjiang

Aiming at the complex relationship of water-energy-food(WEF)nexus and the lack of quantitative evaluation of system security,based on the analysis of the collaborative competition mechanism of WEF nexus,the system safety evaluation index system and evaluation method were constructed,and the quantitative evaluation was carried out by taking Xinjiang as examples.The results showed that the safety level value of WEF nexus in Xinjiang showed an increasing trend over time from 1997 to 2016.The trend of WEF nexus change in each prefecture presented two stages.Except for Karamay and Urumqi,the safety level values of WEF nexus were on the rise in other prefectures from 1997 to 2009,and the safety level values were significantly different.Half of the prefectures’safety level values showed a downward trend,and the spatial difference of safety level values were decreased from 2010 to 2016.With the change of policy orientation and the continuous improvement of technology,carbon intensity was always an important factor affecting the WEF nexus safety of Xinjiang.And the other major factors were shifted from water and energy use in agriculture to renewable energy self-sufficiency and water security.Changes in influencing factors led to the obvious difference in the spatial pattern of the WEF nexus security between the two stages.The projection value ranking of each sub-system reflected the difference of driving mechanism among different prefectures.Some effective measures combined with the main influencing factors and regional characteristics could be taken to improve the WEF nexus safety.