| Abstract: | Prediction of the first occurrence of potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) given by the SIMPHYT1 model, which has been used for about 20 years, has not been found satisfactory in years with high soil moisture. Consequently, a new model, SIMBLIGHT1, has been developed. As input parameters SIMBLIGHT1 requires temperature, relative humidity and information on soil moisture, crop prevalence and cultivar susceptibility. SIMBLIGHT1 calculates a cumulative risk index for several groups of emergence dates and signals the start of the epidemic once a given threshold is overridden. Model validation and comparison of SIMBLIGHT1 with SIMPHYT1 were performed with field data from 11 years. Results were promising and SIMBLIGHT1 gave better results than SIMPHYT1 when soils of potato fields were waterlogged. Efforts are currently being made to improve SIMBLIGHT1 and in the long term this model will replace SIMPHYT1. |
