| Abstract: | A DSS was elaborated to determine the level of risk for mycotoxin accumulation in small grain cereals during the growing season and to support different management actions along the cereal production chain. The DSS is based on a discriminant analysis carried out on a representative data set on the presence of deoxinivalenol in winter‐sown bread wheat, durum wheat and barley grown in different areas of Emilia‐Romagna (northern Italy) between 2002 and 2004. Three to five levels of proneness to Fusarium head blight were defined for six influencing factors (weather conditions, growing area, host species and variety, previous crop and type of soil tillage before sowing), each level having its own coefficient, and linearly combined in an equation of risk (R). A value of R can be then calculated for any plot using information at both regional (weather conditions and growing area) and plot‐specific (host and cropping practices) levels. R ranges between −3.86 and 4.43 with four risk levels: low (R –2), intermediate (–2 < R –0.44), high (–0.44 < R 1.2), and very high (R > 1.2). Different management actions are suggested based on the level of R of the plot. The DSS was satisfactorily validated using data from many plots other than those used in its elaboration. |
