秦岭南北径流变化特征对比分析

突变性是水文时间序列重要特征。秦岭南北地区水文水资源系统的演变规律有较强的差异,突变及其形成的物理机制有很多异同点,因此系统分析本地区水资源突变性特征有重要意义。本文采用小波分析方法对比分析了秦岭南北年径流和最大径流量的变化周期,研究表明:虽然有秦岭气候分界线的存在,但两侧河流变化的差异性不很明显,秦岭南北径流都在逐年减少,尤其是1992年以来减少幅度很大,年径流量减少到历史最低水平;同时使用Mann-kendall非参数突变检验方法检测秦岭南北河流天然径流量的突变年份,结果表明径流的突变年份基本一致,但是显著程度略有差别,主要在1991-1993年发生了突变,这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性,人类活动并不是导致这次突变的原因。

Abrupt Change of the Annual Natural Runoff in the North and the South Area of Qinling Mountains

Abrupt change is a very important character of the hydrological time series.Abrupt changes of the rivers are different and physical mechanism are not same in the North and South area of Qinling Mountain.So it is necessary to research the abrupt changes of the runoff series for rational water explotaiton in the region.The abrupt changes in these series were analyzed with the method of Mann-Kendall and the results showed that the abrupt change happened during 1991-1993.The abrupt change were consistent with the climatic change in the North Hemisphere,and the change was not attribute to the human activities.