渭南市耕地变化对粮食安全的影响评价

利于最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,对渭南市1990-2006年由于耕地面积变化所引发的粮食安全状况进行评价.结果表明:渭南市耕地面积变化经历了逐年减少、波动变化和趋于稳定3个阶段,耕地面积变化的区域差异不明显,人均耕地面积变化呈现明显减少的特点;正常年份渭南市粮食供给处于安全水平,在粮食生产遭遇自然灾害时,粮食安全状况就会受到影响;粮食安全表现出明显的区域差异性,未来8 a内渭南市的粮食安全不会受到威胁.研究结果将为合理解决渭南市耕地利用与粮食安全之间的矛盾提供科学依据.

Evaluation of Grain Security Affected by Cultivated Land Change in Weinan City

The article evaluated the state of grain security based on quantitive change of cultivated land, using the models of per captia minimum area of cultivated land and cultivated land pressure index in Weinan city from 1990 to 2006. The results are as follows: the quantitive change of cultivated land experienced three stages, decreased year by year, fluctuated change and near stable state;the regional differences of cultivated land change is't obvious;the per capita cultivated land area stay at high level in Shaanxi province;the grain security will goes well unless the crop undergo such natural disasters as drought,flood,illness and so on. The grain security have apparent regional diversities;there won't any threaten of grain security in Weinan city during next eight years. The results will offer a scientific basement to solve the conflict between cultivated land use and grain security in Weinan city.