桃树始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型

利用1991～2010年卫辉市气象局地面气象观测资料和桃树始花期的观测资料,对影响桃树始花期的气象因子进行分析。结果表明,卫辉市桃树始花期有明显的提前趋势;始花期与气温稳定通过5℃到3月底的积温、2月下旬～3月底日照总时数、3月下旬5 cm地温累计值呈显著的负相关。利用最小二乘法回归分析,建立了当地桃树始花期预报模型,并进行校正,通过检验模型效果良好,可为桃树始花期预报提供参考。

Correlation Analysis and Forecasting Model of Peach Tree Early Flowering Season and Meteorological Factors

By using ground meteorological observation data and peach tree early flowering season of Weihui Meteorological Bureau during 1991-2010,the meteorological factors influencing peach tree early flowering season were analyzed.The results showed that the early flowering season of peach tree advanced obviously;The sunshine total hours from last ten days of Feb.to Mar.and 5 cm ground temperature accumulative temperature in the last ten days of Mar.indicated significant negative correlation.By using least squares regression analysis,the prediction model of local peach tree early flowering season was established and corrected.It was proved that the prediction model has a good effect by testing,which can provide reference for peach tree early flowering season.