气候变化对黄淮海和长江流域棉蚜发生程度的影响

[目的]分析大区域范围内大田尺度上气候变化(主要是温度和降水)对棉蚜发生程度的影响.[方法]基于黄淮海和长江流域1991～2010年50个县棉蚜发生程度的观测资料、长序列气候资料及其他社会经济数据,运用计量经济学模型定量分析了气候变化对棉蚜发生程度的影响.[结果]不同生长阶段温度和降水的变化对棉蚜发生程度的影响差异显著;即使在同一生长阶段,不同区域棉蚜对于温度和降水的反应也不一致.[结论]应该充分考虑不同地域不同时期的气候条件;在摸清棉蚜发生规律的基础上采取合适的措施加以防范,从而保障棉花生产.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Occurrence Degree of Cotton Aphids in Huang-Huai-Hai and Yangtze River Basins

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the impacts of climate change (temperature and precipitation) on the occurrence degree of cotton aphids.[Method] Econometric models were established to explore the impacts of climate change on the occurrence degree of cotton aphids based on the observation data from 50 counties in Huang-Huai-Hai and Yangtze River basins in 1991-2010,including variables on the occurrence degree of cotton aphids,temperature and precipitation,and other socio-economic factors.[Result] There were significant differences in the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on the occurrence degrees of cotton aphid in different growth stages,and even in the same growth stage,the cotton aphids had different responses to the changes of temperature and precipitation in different regions.[Conclusion] It should give full consideration to the climatic conditions in different periods of different regions,and it should adopt proper measures to control the cotton aphids on the basis of figuring out the occurrence rule of cotton aphid,so as to ensure cotton production.