吉林省春玉米生产潜力及其敏感性分析

基于“作物生长动态统计”模型计算吉林省春玉米光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,运用敏感系数法计算并分析了生产潜力对全生育期平均气温和降水的敏感性。结果表明：春玉米光合生产潜力和光温生产潜力在吉林省由西向东呈递减趋势,中部的气候生产潜力最大,为17 266kg/hm ²,西部和东部分别为10 787、16 983kg/hm ²;西部、中部和东部生产潜力气温影响率分别为20.1%、19.5%和30.9%;生产潜力降水影响率分别为50.9%、17.6%和3.2%;西部和中部的气温敏感系数均值分别为1.77和1.99,西部最大为3.63;西部的降水敏感系数均值最大,为1.6,东部则形成了低值区。

Analysis on Potential Productivity and Climatic Influence Factors of Spring Maize in Jilin

To study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and potential productivity of spring maize in Jilin and its response to climate change, meteorological data of spring maize in Jilin growing area from 1961 to 2015 were used in order to calculate the spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity, photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity based on dynamic statistic model. Sensitivity of potential productivity to average temperature and precipitation in every growth period was analyzed by using the sensitivity coefficients. The results revealed that spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity and photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity showed a decreasing trend from west to east and the spatial distribution of spring maize climatic potential productivity showed an “increasing-decreasing-increasing” trend from west to east. The largest climatic potential productivity was 17 266kg/hm ² in the central region. The climatic potential productivity in the western region was 10 787kg/hm ² and the productivity in the eastern region is 16 983kg/hm ². The influence rates of average temperature to potential productivity in the western region, central region and eastern region respectively were 20.1%, 19.5% and 30.9%, respectively; The influence rates of precipitation to potential productivity were 50.9%, 17.6% and 3.2%, respectively; The average sensitivity coefficients of average temperature in western region and central region respectively were 1.77 and 1.99, the maximum value was 3.63 in eastern region. The average sensitivity coefficients of precipitation in western region reached 1.6 of the highest value, while the low value area of sensitivity coefficients to precipitation was in eastern region. Precipitation was the most sensitive variable to spring maize climatic potential productivity in western region; Temperature was the most sensitive variable to spring maize climatic potential productivity in eastern region.