两种冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型的比较

为比较DSSAT模型和模糊数学方法用于冬小麦气候适宜度评价的效果,利用河南省杞县和汤阴县1999-2013年的气象资料、冬小麦发育期及产量数据,采用DSSAT模型和模糊数学方法构建两种冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型,并计算不同生育期和全生育期的冬小麦气候适宜度。利用相关分析方法,检验两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的评价效果。结果表明：杞县和汤阴县的出苗至越冬期、返青至拔节期、拔节至开花期、开花至成熟期,模型法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度与模糊数学法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度变化趋势基本一致,且呈正相关,而两个地点的越冬至返青期,两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度呈负相关。两个地点两种方法估算的全生育期冬小麦气候适宜度变化趋势与实测产量的变化趋势基本一致,且两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度呈正相关。模型法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的标准差和变异系数均高于模糊数学估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的标准差和变异系数。但与模糊数学法相比,DSSAT模型估算的冬小麦气候适宜度与实测产量变化更接近。DSSAT模型可用于冬小麦气候适宜度评价研究。

Comparison of Using DSSAT and Fuzzy Mathematics for Climatic Suitability Model of Winter Wheat

In order to compare the application of DSSAT model and fuzzy mathematical method in climate suitability evaluation of winter wheat, two evaluation models of climate suitability were respectively established. The climate suitability of winter wheat at different growth stage and in the whole growth stage was calculated by data from counties of Qi and Tangyin in Henan province during 1999-2013. Correlation analysis was used to test the evaluation effect of climate suitability of winter wheat calculated by DSSAT and fuzzy mathematical method. The results showed that at emerging to wintering stage, turning green to jointing stage, jointing to anthesis stage and anthesis to maturity stage, the change trend of climate suitability calculated by DSSAT model (CS-DSSAT) all agreed well with that by fuzzy mathematical method (CS-FM). There was a positive relationship between CS-DSSAT and CS-FM at four stages, while a negative relationship at overwintering to turning green stage. The change trend of CS-DSSAT at whole growth period was consistent with that of CS-FM. The standard deviation and variation coefficient of CS-DSSAT were respectively higher than that of CS-FM, but compared with CS-FM, the change trend of CS-DSSAT was closer to that of yield. DSSAT model could be employed to evaluate climate suitability of winter wheat.