| 光泽县止马国有林场森林资源发展趋势灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 林琴琴,刘标. 光泽县止马国有林场森林资源发展趋势灰色预测[J]. 现代农业科技, 2011, 0(19): 216-217,220 |
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| 作者姓名： | 林琴琴 刘标 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建林业职业技术学院,福建南平,353000
2. 福建农林大学林学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用邓聚龙教授创立的灰色系统与方法,以光泽县止马国有林场森林资源调查统计数据为基础,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对光泽县止马国有林场森林资源主要指标(森林覆盖率、有林地面积、活立木蓄积量、用材林蓄积量、近成过熟林蓄积量)的发展趋势进行预测。经检验,预测结果精度好,可信度高,可为福建省光泽县止马国有林场森林资源研究提供切实可靠的分析工具。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林资源 发展趋势 灰色预测模型 GM(1,1)模型 止马国有林场 福建光泽 |
Grey Prediction of Forest Resources Development Trend of State-Owned Forest Farms of Zhima in Guangze County |
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| LIN Qin-qin LIU Biao. Grey Prediction of Forest Resources Development Trend of State-Owned Forest Farms of Zhima in Guangze County[J]. Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology, 2011, 0(19): 216-217,220 |
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| Authors: | LIN Qin-qin LIU Biao |
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| Affiliation: | LIN Qin-qin 1 LIU Biao 2(1 Fujian Foresty Vocational & Technical College,Nanping Fujian 353000,2 Forestry College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University) |
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| Abstract: | By Professor Deng Julong＇ s gray system and method,and based on survey data of state-owned forest resources of Zhima,Grey prediction GM （ 1,1 ）model was established, and the development trend of the key indicators of state-owned forest resources of Zhima （forest cover, forest area,standing timber volume,timber volume,nearly mature forest volume）were forecasted.The test had a good accuracy and reliability for prediction, and could provide practical and reliable analysis tools for forest resources of state-owned forest farms of Zhima. |
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| Keywords: | forest resources development trend gray prediction model GM （ 1,1 ）model state-owned forest farms of Zhima Guangze Fujian |
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