酒泉市夏季降水和气温变化与ENSO事件的相关分析

运用主成分分析法对1951-2000年酒泉市月平均降水和气温资料进行了分析,并用X2检验的方法,对近50 a酒泉市夏季降水和气温变化与ENSO事件的相关性进行了分析.结果表明:(1)酒泉市夏季(6～8月)降水和气温对当地年降水和年气温起到决定性作用.(2)酒泉市夏季总体气候未来几年仍然将处于干旱少雨时段,降水量减少,温度升高.(3)ENSO暖事件对酒泉市夏季降水影响显著,ENSO暖事件年酒泉降水偏少占优,次年容易发生大量降水;但其与气温的相关性不明显.(4)ENSO冷事件对酒泉市夏季气温的影响接近显著水平,ENSO冷事件年酒泉市气温以偏低为主;对降水的影响不明显.

Analysis on the Correlation between the Change of Precipitation and Temperature in Jiuquan City and ENSO Events

In this paper,the precipitation and temperature data observed by Jiuquan Meteorological Station during the period from 1951 to 2000 are analyzed by using principal component analysis.The correlation between the precipitation and temperature in Jiuquan in summer since recent 50 years and the ENSO events are analyze.The results are as follows:(1) The precipitation and temperature in summer(from June to August) play an important role in annual precipitation and temperature;(2) The precipitation will be continuously decreased but the temperature will be continuously increased in Jiuquan in summer;(3) Warming ENSO events have an important influence to the precipitation in Jiuquan.Precipitation is generally decreased in ENSO years,but it is increased next year.(4) The effect of cold ENSO events on temperature in Jiuquan in summer is significant,but that on precipitation is not so obvious.Moreover,the precipitation in Jiuquan in summer was relatively more in the 1950s,aridity was the most significant during the period of 1961-1971,and the longest period with more precipitation occurred from 1972 to 1991 since recent 50 years.Generally,the temperature in Jiuquan was relatively high during the period of 1951-1962,relatively low during the period of 1963-1993,and has been increased since 1994.