基于PSR-SPA模型的成都市文化遗产洪涝灾害风险研究

[目的] 评估文物保护单位的洪灾风险，为提升遗产防洪减灾能力提供科学依据。[方法] 以四川省成都市311处文物保护单位为例，通过构建PSR-SPA模型研究文物保护单位洪灾风险的分布规律，并通过空间自相关性分析确定洪灾风险的空间分布特征。[结果] 成都市文物保护单位洪灾风险为西高东低、北高南低，城市高于郊区、平原高于山地。洪灾风险等级与遗产级别呈正相关，全国重点文物保护单位遭受洪水灾害的风险高，中等风险以上文保单位以古建筑和近现代重要史迹及代表性建筑为主，年代多为宋元明清时期，洪灾风险高发区域为青羊、武侯和锦江等主城区。文保单位洪灾风险在空间分布上呈微弱的正相关关系，存在一定的空间集聚性。[结论] 全国重点文物保护单位受灾后易损，应针对性地提高遗产自身抵御灾害的能力；应关注古建筑和近现代重要建筑、宋元明清时期的文物保护单位的洪灾风险防治问题，发挥文物预警防控功能；受洪灾威胁较大的区县应进一步加强防汛信息化建设。

Research on Flood Risk of Cultural Heritage in Chengdu City Based on a PSR-SPA Model

[Objective] The flood risk related to cultural relics on protected sites was evaluated in order to provide a scientific basis for improving flood control measures and disaster reduction ability for heritage sites.[Methods] The study used data from 311 cultural relics protection units in Chengdu City, Sichuan Province to determine the distribution law of flood risk for cultural relics protection units. A PSR-SPA model was constructed, and the spatial distribution characteristics of flood risk were determined by spatial autocorrelation analysis.[Results] The flood risk of cultural relics protection units in Chengdu City was high in the west, low in the east, high in the north, and low in the south. Flood risk was higher in the urban area than in the suburbs, and higher in the plain than in the mountains. The flood risk level was positively related to the heritage level. The national key cultural relics protection units had a high risk of flood disaster. The cultural protection units with above medium risk were mainly ancient buildings, important modern historical sites, and tipical buildings. Most of these units were in the areas associated with the Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties. The areas with high flood risk were Qingyang, Wuhou, Jinjiang cities, and other primarily urban areas. There was a weak positive correlation in the spatial distribution of flood risk in cultural and social protection units, and there was a certain spatial agglomeration.[Conclusion] National cultural relics protection sites are vulnerable to disasters, and their ability to withstand disasters should be improved. Attention should be given to flood risk prevention and control for ancient buildings, important modern buildings, and cultural relics protection units in areas associated with the Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties, and give full attention to the early warning, prevention, and control of disasters. Districts and counties threatened by floods should further strengthen the construction of flood control information.