SIMYR—小麦条锈病流行的简要模拟模型

 把小麦条锈病(Puccinia striiformis West)的侵染过程划分成传染、潜育期(和显症)以及病斑扩展等三个主要环节,分别进行了试验和试验数据的统计分析,通过逐步回归建立了根据有关气象因素预测日传染率的回归方程,用逻辑斯谛模型根据有效积温预测显症率,分三阶段确定病斑产孢面积日增量,采用FORTRAN Ⅳ语言编成小麦条锈病流行的电子计算机模拟模型SIMYR,它由一个主程序和五个子程序组成。
用未参加组建本模型的田间病情数据对模型进行了初步检验,认为其结构基本合理,并以不同初菌量、不同品种抗病性和不同药剂防治时期进行了模拟试验。对这一模型现存的问题和改进途径也进行了讨论。

SIMYR-A SIMPLE SIMULATION MODEL FOR EPIDEMIC OF WHEAT STRIPE RUST,PUCCINIA STRⅡFORMIS WEST

Daily multiplication factor(R),probability of apparition(PP) and the rate of sporulating lesion expansion(SP) of yellow rust of wheat were studied quantitatively under field conditions,and prognostic equations(predicting R from meterological conditions,predicting PP from effective accumulative temperature,and predicting SP from lesion age,separately) were developed based on the data obtained.With these equations as submodels,a simple simulation model for yellow rust of wheat,SIMYR,was contructed,and was considered to be an improved form of the previous model TXLX published in 1981.
Simulated epidemic curves were basically similar to observed values that had not been used in developing this model.Preliminary simulation experiments had been conducted with various combinations of quantity of source of inoculum,partial resistance of host plant and effectivity of fungicide.The shortcomings to be improved and the possible applicability of this model were also discussed.